Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Shot in the Dark: 2010 Offseason Predictions

After years of waiting, franchises that have tanked purposely over the past couple of seasons have finally reached their day of salvation, July 1, 2010. It all started with LeBron....the two time MVP all-world small forward has had several franchises drooling ever since teams began to realize that the possibility of him leaving his home state was all too real. Soon, other free agents noticed how much general managers were targeting this summer, and began setting plans on getting in on the fun. The question is, with all of the talk lately about summits and collaborations of James, Wade, Johnson, Stoudemire, Bosh, and whoever else, is it really about forming a super team and creating a dynasty.
For James, I dont think it is. I dont think he wants to go to Miami and play with Wade, where they will be considered a duo, not James as the leader. I also dont think he really wants to go to Chicago, which would invite constant comparisons to MJ, which at this point in his career would be hard to live up to. I also dont see him returning to Cleveland, because in all honesty, they arent going to be able to put a much better team around him than the one that just lost in the second round. This leaves a few teams....the Knicks and Nets...and the outsiders with no cap room, Dallas and Houston. I dont see the Nets being big enough of a market for LBJ, so my prediction: LeBron James signs with the New York Knicks.
Dwyane Wade is the obvious number 2 in this class. To me, his free agency has only two real options....his current team, the Heat, or his hometown Chicago Bulls. The determining factor for him is who he will be playing with.....he wants another ring.....I dont see the Heat walking away from this offseason without at least two top 10 free agents. For this reason, Dwyane Wade re-signs with the Miami Heat.
If your GM says you are probably headed out of town, then you probably are. Chris Bosh has a big list of options. I dont see the Knicks having a huge pursuit of him, and I dont think he wants to play in a small market like New Jersey. Bosh wants to go back to playing power forward, and the issue with Heat is that they currently do not have a legitimate center on the roster.....the Bulls have Joakim Noah, as well as rising point guard Derrick Rose. This should tip the scales, and Chris Bosh signs with the Chicago Bulls.

There is little doubt in my mind that Dirk Nowitzki really has any interest in leaving his longtime home of Dallas. He simply wants to see how comitted Mark Cuban is to winning now. Dirk Nowitzki re-signs with the Dallas Mavericks.
Something tells me that Mike D'Antoni wouldnt mind having Amare Stoudemire. Something also tells me that LeBron James wouldnt mind playing with Amare. He would be considered LeBron's second fiddle. Even LeBron knows that you cant win a title without a big man. Stoudemire's best years were in the run-and-gun system, and I think he wants back in. Amare Stoudemire signs with the New York Knicks.
Joe Johnson also had some pretty good years in D'Antoni's system. Most people see him going back to NY, but if LeBron and Amare end up going, the numbers dont work out. I dont see him and Wade fitting very well together, and I think his best shot at winning is joining a core of Rose, Deng, Noah, and potentially, Chris Bosh. Of all the teams creating massive cap space, this team would end being the most succesful if these predictions were to end up true. Joe Johnson signs with the Chicago Bulls.
Carlos Boozer is the black sheep of this free agent class. Teams say that they want him, but in reality, he is a backup plan when you miss out on Amare or Bosh. He really isnt a superstar, but a solid presence in the paint. He really seems to want to go to Miami, and I think he would be able to pull in Wade, while still allowing room for them to sign a center, like Brendan Haywood. Carlos Boozer signs with the Miami Heat.
Rudy Gay starts the next tier of just below elite players. He certainly will not demand anywhere near a max contract, but can bring 20 points per game to any team. He could potentially end up being a third whell in New York or Miami, but I dont see winning immediately as that important to him. Instead he would like to move to a budding team and a rich owner that will covet him more than anyone else....Rudy Gay signs with the New Jersey Nets.
I dont know if David Lee re-signing with the Knicks would be enough to draw in LeBron....I think the Knicks abandon him in hopes of Bosh or Amare, so Lee is left to find another option. Even with the Nets adding Derrick Favors, Prokhorov is very interested in putting a winning team on the court right now, and Lee would certainly help. If the Nets could add a solid 2 guard on the cheap, like Ronnie Brewer, they could solidify a very nice lineup with current borderline All-Stars Devin Harris and Brook Lopez. David Lee signs with the New Jersey Nets.

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